Recovery Attribution Floor

Recovery Attribution Floor treats every winback, abandoned-checkout, and failed-renewal flow as unproven until a holdback group measures it. The framework: split the audience, suppress the sequence for a control cohort, and report only the lift above that floor. Agencies that skip the control group sell activity; agencies that run one sell incremental revenue. Snagr applies this directly to Polar.sh merchants, emailing after abandoned checkouts, failed renewals, and cancellations while measuring recovered revenue against a 5% holdback control group on a flat fee. That structure matters for retainers because it converts a vague retention promise into a number a client can audit. The same discipline applies to replenishment and winback flows built in Customer.io or Stamped: without a suppressed cohort, a 12% recovery rate may be mostly customers who would have returned anyway. Build the control group before the campaign, not after the invoice.